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The polling on Wikipedia has Hollande in third place (barely) and the only candidate who would lose to Le Pen if he got to second round. And now they want to gut collective bargaining and ram it through with presidential decree?!
Speaking of the next election, is the discussion on the left to hold a left primary gaining any steam?
The result is that he cannot understand the economic problems France is facing due to being in the Euro-zone and having the policy of the ECB largely dictated by Germany. This is doubly unfortunate, as France is the one country that could force Germany to change course. And, unfortuantely, his views on economics are widely shared amongst French elites.
So he is just doing what he thinks is right and bravely soldiering on despite the plummeting popularity of his government - marching himself, his party and his country off a cliff and into disaster. It has the elements of classical tragedy.
As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
In terms of voter sentiment, the National Front is increasingly the party of the working class and of the unemployed.
also in my view due to errors on the part of the leader of the left alternative, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, during the 2012
Could you elaborate what those mistakes was?
The problem is that the target audience for the Front de Gauche is largely the same as the Front National, in much the same way that Bernie Sanders appeals to many of the same votes that Donald Trump appeals to.
He was polling well, in the high to mid- teens, and then came the barrage of attacks on Marine Le Pen, which had the unfortunate effect of insulting a good number of his own potential voters.
We see similar dynamics elsewhere.
He finished at 11%.
Mélenchon was actively trying to beat Marine Le Pen into fourth place, he wanted to beat her, not win enough votes to make it to the second round. And, he attacked her, for nativism and for not being credible on jobs and on the economic front. He was really going after her, personally, at the end.
And I think if a voter has already given thought and consideration to supporting a candidate, only to hear how ridiculous that candidate is from another candidate who is also aiming to get your vote, you are not necessarily doing yourself any favors.
But Trump is a completely different beast from the National Front. A bald-faced demogogue, and proud of it and his ability to connect with the most nativist portions of the electorate. This case is far harder to make for Marine Le Pen, whose growing support is not coming from the "dead-end" demographic as in the US, but rather, the youth vote, where she is doing really very well.
However those attacking or satirising him should take care to drive a wedge between him and his supporters. Appearing to attack his supporters as well as him is the worst thing you can do if you hope to demobilise his base. It will only consolidate them behind him.
His supporters are probably especially sensitive to being written off as dead end, low intelligence, poorly educated, losers. Paying them exaggerated (but not patronising) respect whilst highlighting how he disrespects them is probably the most effective line of attack.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Working class people used to be a reliable vote for Labour in the 70s who became the 80s thatcherite working classes. Now in the 21st century they are moving on to ukip. Yet Labour still believe that these people should be voting for them and barrack ukip in ways that continue to alienate the very electorate they seek to woo.
The problem for Labour is that they never understood why these people deserted them in the first place and continues to fail to see why ukip can be so attractive to a group of people who, on the face of it, seem to have so little to gain from voting for the right.
keep to the Fen Causeway
Takes a generation to die off before things change. Or, theoretically, in a democracy, vote the generation out.
However there is no a priory reason why a generational change should lead to a paradigm shift - indeed the younger generation may cling to the old certainties more vehemently than those who came before. It takes the objective failure of a given set of ideas to achieve their desired goals for a mass re-examination to begin...
Index of Frank's Diaries
François Hollande later announced (via a nationally televised interview with a carefully selected group of journalists and citizens) that he would announce his intentions...in December.
So no, there are no credible plans for a primary on the left in France, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon has, logically, announced his intention to run for the Presidency in 2017 irregardless.
Looking at the Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017 the most likely result looks like LePen and whoever UMP nominates on to the second round, with Holland and Mélenchon fighting it out for third and fourth place.
It is a cottage industry among pundits here to attempt to ascertain the president's intentions...
Does PS lack any will to win the next election or what is going on?
We know the French presidential system tends to make the people inside it totally deaf and blind, but this crowd is running it to new heights.
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