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European Tribune - The consequences of Brexit
 If Wolfgang Schäuble has anything to do with it, it seems that the EU will take a hard line:  No preferential access to the single market without a significant financial contribution and the free movement of labour: both factors Brexit was supposed to avoid.  Therefore we can expect the re-erection of trade barriers between the UK and the EU.

I think, if it comes down to it, trade negotiations will be swift. There is already the remains of EFTA around to provide examples. And most importantly, both sides lose if negotiations are stretched out. If Britain had been smaller, like say Greece, I think an example would have been made of it (like Greece). But Britains economy is to large and the elites to connected for that to be likely other then as a threat to make the population vote remain.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 03:28:24 AM EST
It will indeed be interesting to see how those trade negotiations pan out.  Schauble et al cannot afford to allow British business to gain a competitive advantage by not having to make a financial contribution and being less tied up by regulations.  That would be to destroy the rationale for the EU altogether.  

In addition, a dramatic devaluation of the £ would already give British business a major advantage, and possible a short term growth spurt.  So I have to disagree with you.  The elites may be connected ideologically (and in some cases financially), but specifi elites, tied to specific enterprises, are in competition against each other and would be very sensitive to the other side gaining an advantage.

So I see the negotiations as very fraught:  Conducted against the background of £ devaluation and a lot of nationalistic crowing on both sides, and above all determined by commercial interests. German exporters will still want access to the UK market, but do have other markets to look to.  British exporters, not so much. NZ, Australia, Brics, USA etc. are a poor substitute for the single market.

It comes down to relative power, and despite Brexiter dreams, the Brits don't have it any more.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 06:43:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britains economy is to large and the elites to connected for (Brexit) to be likely other then as a threat to make the population vote remain.

That will provide a stark illustration of just how unprincipaled IS the treatment of Greece - not that it is possible to shame the German government.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 09:21:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Relative power IS the principle most international and commercial negotiations operate on, particularly the US, and increasingly, the EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 10:31:37 AM EST
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