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If Wolfgang Schäuble has anything to do with it, it seems that the EU will take a hard line: No preferential access to the single market without a significant financial contribution and the free movement of labour: both factors Brexit was supposed to avoid. Therefore we can expect the re-erection of trade barriers between the UK and the EU.
I think, if it comes down to it, trade negotiations will be swift. There is already the remains of EFTA around to provide examples. And most importantly, both sides lose if negotiations are stretched out. If Britain had been smaller, like say Greece, I think an example would have been made of it (like Greece). But Britains economy is to large and the elites to connected for that to be likely other then as a threat to make the population vote remain.
In addition, a dramatic devaluation of the £ would already give British business a major advantage, and possible a short term growth spurt. So I have to disagree with you. The elites may be connected ideologically (and in some cases financially), but specifi elites, tied to specific enterprises, are in competition against each other and would be very sensitive to the other side gaining an advantage.
So I see the negotiations as very fraught: Conducted against the background of £ devaluation and a lot of nationalistic crowing on both sides, and above all determined by commercial interests. German exporters will still want access to the UK market, but do have other markets to look to. British exporters, not so much. NZ, Australia, Brics, USA etc. are a poor substitute for the single market.
It comes down to relative power, and despite Brexiter dreams, the Brits don't have it any more.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Britains economy is to large and the elites to connected for (Brexit) to be likely other then as a threat to make the population vote remain.
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