Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.
Display:
Slight discrepancy in percentages:
"William Crawford - 41 e.v. (11.2%)
Henry Clay - 37 e.v. (13.0%)"

Would House Speaker Ryan not be the obvious beneficiary if neither Clinton or Trump got 270 ev? Would he have to stand in the General Election to qualify or could anyone enter to prevent any candidate reaching 270 ev? Could Jeb! or Romney stand to deny anyone 270 ev?  It's hard to see anyone breaking up the Dem/GOP duopoly and actually winning enough EV to prevent anyone reaching 270. A Sanders run would more likely enable Trump to win.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 12:46:57 PM EST
The percentages are of the popular vote. Sorry for laziness.

Yes, Paul Ryan could be in a good position. But states start closing independent registration soon (North Carolina on June 9, etc), and thousands of signatures have to be gathered.

If the election would be as close as in 2000, a few leaked votes could mean a big circus. Low probability, surely. If an establishment Repub would be preferable while Hilary sinking, fielding yet more candidates to chip away from Trump might help.

by das monde on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 01:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since EV's are (mostly) awarded on a winner-take-all basis, such a third-party candidate would have to win at least a few states.  That is not easy.
by Zwackus on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 06:36:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An example of how this might happen would be if Kasich were to run and win his home state of Ohio. The Ohio  "sore loser" law only prevents someone who lost the primary there from running in the general. Kasich won the primary there.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 08:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Were Kasich to run in Ohio he would be likely to run also in Pennsylvania and Indiana, perhaps elsewhere as well. I certainly have no sense of what might happen to EVs in that case.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 3rd, 2016 at 12:17:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A transformation is not supposed to be easy. But when it happens, the Universe conspires for you.

Given the usual bland personality choice among the candidates, a charismatic and socially savvy candidate would certainly draw attention regardless of political inclination - not unlike Trump now. There is definitely some vacuum bordering at electorate expectations.

by das monde on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 11:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

The Killing of Jo Cox

by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17
24 comments

Nostalgia Isn't What It Used to Be

by gmoke - Jun 15
5 comments

Long tunnels

by DoDo - Jun 12
23 comments

What 9/11 liberals ignore

by DoDo - Jun 5
68 comments

Developments in Austria

by generic - Jun 8
1 comment

The arsonist party

by fjallstrom - Jun 8
1 comment

Recent Diaries

The Killing of Jo Cox

by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17
24 comments

Long tunnels

by DoDo - Jun 12
23 comments

Developments in Austria

by generic - Jun 8
1 comment

The arsonist party

by fjallstrom - Jun 8
1 comment

The tragedy of Hillary

by DoDo - Jun 6
47 comments

What 9/11 liberals ignore

by DoDo - Jun 5
68 comments

France on Strike

by John Redmond - May 30
37 comments

Böhmermann

by DoDo - May 29
11 comments

A Tale of Two States

by Frank Schnittger - May 26
20 comments

Edmund Burke for Socialists

by ARGeezer - May 25
22 comments

More Diaries...

Occasional Series