Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.
Display:
The problem is that there is a third-party candidate. And a fourth. And probably more. How many of those would pick each of them?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Jun 3rd, 2016 at 11:48:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is hard to know. In the current situation or a future one like it we might see more votes for a new left and a new right party than go to either of the present dominant parties. People want real problems addressed. Instead they are getting bipartisan support for the status quo and defense of the existing financial system that has created these problems. If Democratic and Republican party leadership continues in this same path both parties could become marginalized.

In this campaign I don't see the Greens, the Libertarians or any new candidate such as Bill Crystol's David French getting much more that 2-3% with all such parties together probably getting less than 5%. By 2016 that could change and even more so by 2020. A lot depends on what happens in this election and during the next four years.

This election could do long term damage to the Republicans from which existing elites and their paymasters may or may not be able to significantly recover. A Republican meltdown and breakdown combined with the failure of a new Democratic President to addresss adequately the existing problems could create the space for a new left party and lead to a lasting split at some point in the Democratic Party.

By 2021 we could find both of the now major parties shadows of their former selves composed mostly of their respective patron bases and some of the elites who now serve those patrons with neither party having much more that 10% of the electorate as registered members. Even now there are more independents than Republicans or Democrats and possibly than Republicans and Democrats combined. Even in 2014 there was one poll that showed 50% of the electorate being independent - though that is not likely the case now.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 4th, 2016 at 12:11:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

The Killing of Jo Cox

by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17
24 comments

Nostalgia Isn't What It Used to Be

by gmoke - Jun 15
5 comments

Long tunnels

by DoDo - Jun 12
23 comments

What 9/11 liberals ignore

by DoDo - Jun 5
68 comments

Developments in Austria

by generic - Jun 8
1 comment

The arsonist party

by fjallstrom - Jun 8
1 comment

Recent Diaries

The Killing of Jo Cox

by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17
24 comments

Long tunnels

by DoDo - Jun 12
23 comments

Developments in Austria

by generic - Jun 8
1 comment

The arsonist party

by fjallstrom - Jun 8
1 comment

The tragedy of Hillary

by DoDo - Jun 6
47 comments

What 9/11 liberals ignore

by DoDo - Jun 5
68 comments

France on Strike

by John Redmond - May 30
37 comments

Böhmermann

by DoDo - May 29
11 comments

A Tale of Two States

by Frank Schnittger - May 26
20 comments

Edmund Burke for Socialists

by ARGeezer - May 25
22 comments

More Diaries...

Occasional Series