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In this campaign I don't see the Greens, the Libertarians or any new candidate such as Bill Crystol's David French getting much more that 2-3% with all such parties together probably getting less than 5%. By 2016 that could change and even more so by 2020. A lot depends on what happens in this election and during the next four years.
This election could do long term damage to the Republicans from which existing elites and their paymasters may or may not be able to significantly recover. A Republican meltdown and breakdown combined with the failure of a new Democratic President to addresss adequately the existing problems could create the space for a new left party and lead to a lasting split at some point in the Democratic Party.
By 2021 we could find both of the now major parties shadows of their former selves composed mostly of their respective patron bases and some of the elites who now serve those patrons with neither party having much more that 10% of the electorate as registered members. Even now there are more independents than Republicans or Democrats and possibly than Republicans and Democrats combined. Even in 2014 there was one poll that showed 50% of the electorate being independent - though that is not likely the case now.
As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
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