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That's what they say now, before the GE campaign has really started, and maybe that's what they will end up doing, in which case they don't matter either way. Many have simply not given the matter much thought yet.  However the "undecided" % tends to decrease as November approaches.  Voter participation, thanks in part to voter suppression, is very low in the US anyway, so you tend to get elections decided by those with some skin in the game.

Republicans have been relying on a "base election" strategy for years now: get your base really riled up so they will vote in large numbers... Don't worry to much about the independents and undecideds because they are much less likely to vote anyway. Their problem is that their base has been shrinking so much that they now need an unrealistically high voter turnout by their (largely white) base to have any hope of success.

Trump is making great play of his claim that he is bringing millions of new voters into the game and so can add to the traditional GOP base.  I haven't seen any hard evidence to support this claim.  Certainly GOP primary turnout was much higher than normal (off a v. low base), but you would expect those voters to be regular GE voters in any case.

Overall, I would expect Hillary to have greater scope for expanding her base, as more Sanders supporters become reconciled to the fact that she is the Nominee, possibly having extracted some concessions on Policy and positions in Government in return. It's hard to see how Trump can expand his base much further. If you don't support him now, what would cause you to support him in November?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 4th, 2016 at 08:02:59 AM EST
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