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I think these poll movements (Trump's up-tick after he clinched his nomination and the effect wearing off now) don't matter much. What I'm currently most interested in is the California Democratic primary. This is the last chance for a come-from-behind Sanders victory, or at least for forcing Clinton to take Sanders voters more seriously after winning the nomination. For now, I'm not too hopeful. In these state polls, even the poll aggregate may not be a good indicator of trends due to the irregularity of polls and their increasing frequency before the actual vote, so I concentrate on the trend of each pollster that doesn't just poll in the last few weeks. I see that only Field shows a strong trend towards Sanders closing the gap in California. Add to that Sanders' problem throughout the campaign that a sizeable portion of voters only heard of him during the last weeks of the campaign, yet many mail voters will have voted by that time.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jun 4th, 2016 at 07:28:25 PM EST
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