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I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders won California - and Clinton won New Jersey.  The thing is Sanders needs to win both by massive margins to make up for his deficit in overall votes and delegates, and I don't think that is going to happen.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 05:19:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I no longer think Sanders will win a majority of pledged delegates. It is down to the question of the relative strengths of Clinton and Sanders vs Trump, and it might well turn out that even that doesn't matter. That depends on how the public mood changes between now and July and then until November. I think either would win against Trump but that the future of the USA would much better be served by a Sanders presidency. We don't need four more years of the same policy we have had for the last eight years, or the last 36. There have been far to many continuities of damaging policies between Democratic and Republican administrations, and sometimes the Democrats have been the worst actors - from a progressive perspective.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 09:55:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with all of the above, and agree also that Bill's past history of triangulation casts a dark shadow over the prospect of a Hillary Presidency.

But I see both Bill and Hillary as "Realists" (rather than ideological neo-liberals) in the political philosophy sense of that term.  That is they work within the parameters of what is doable given the nature of the system, the positions of the major actors, and the state of the electorate at any given time.  Given Citizen's United and the total domination of the US by corporate interests, that means that the range of possibilities is pretty dire at this time.  Things have come to a sorry pass when we praise Obama for not actually starting a major war during his terms.

Given my "systemic" perspective, I don't see that Sander's could do much different from Clinton, whether he wanted to or not. In fact Clinton could probably achieve more in a practical sense because she has more of the major players on her side, and they would probably accept more change if it was coming from her.

But the main challenge for progressives is to move the Overton window of what is deemed to be doable as far to the left as possible. This means taking over congress and as many state houses and legislatures as possible, reversing the gerrymandering and voter suppression, and building an organisation which can produce better candidates and policies for the long haul.  I see this as an exhausting and exhaustive long term process building a political organisation from the grass roots up.  I hope Sander' partisans are up for that fight, because I think one of Obama's major mistakes was to effectively disband his OFA organisation once he took office.

If Yves' "progressives" really wanted to make themselves useful, they would use their collective financial clout to take over as many media organisations as possible to mitigate the GOP's advantage there, and to reduce the influence of corporate USA in general.  But that, too, would require hard work, financial muscle, and perhaps some real sacrifice.  No political organisation that ever achieved anything did so without a lot of hard work and sacrifice by a lot of people.  (I have a lot of friends who sacrificed a lot for the anti-Apartheid movement in SA and abroad). Yves' friends whingeing and weeping into their cocktails on a Friday night doesn't cut it.

Whatever else you might say about the Clintons, they have demonstrated a capacity for hard work and staying power against some formidable obstacles. They have had to be pretty ruthless on occasion, but anybody who thinks they can become POTUS by being nice all the time is deluding themselves.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 12:20:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...I see both Bill and Hillary as "Realists" (rather than ideological neo-liberals) in the political philosophy sense of that term.

Well, you are certainly generous in your view. I would say that they both have been pragmatists and self-serving in their views.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 01:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am generous by nature! :-)

Realism, in politics, analyses situations in term of the interests the major actors serve, and whether they have the means to realize those interests. A degree of self interest is assumed and not considered pejorative.  Indeed those who claim to be acting entirely altruistically are treated with a degree of suspicion. (Who are they really working for?).

As in any battle, the first rule is to survive to fight another day if at all possible. The second rule is to avoid battles you know you are going to lose.  In realism, there are no moral victors. Only stupid losers. And the really stupid ones make things even worse for their own side.  In realism you start from what you have and seek to build on that.  Any improvement is a win even if it falls far short of what you intended or wished for, provided it doesn't preclude the possibility of renewing the fight on another day.

JFK famously said: "The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were and ask "why not?".  The job of a progressive is to put new ideas onto the mainstream agenda. Sanders has succeeded in putting rising income inequality onto the mainstream political agenda.  The question now is who can most effectively reduce it. My suggestion is that if the Democratic party and anybody who seeks to lead it fails to address that issue effectively, they will lose their electoral relevance. But that means they need to win both houses of Congress.

Lose that battle, and the Democrats are toast, because Republicans don't need to win that battle, their support is anchored to maintaining inequality, and so far, they have succeeded admirably in doing so.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 01:44:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A good time to build a communications company here in the US.  iHeartRadio - formerly Clear Channel Communications - home of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, and etc. is going bankrupt which will throw approximately 800 stations on the market.  Approximately 100 of which are worth owning and the rest are in media areas too small to be worth owning.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jun 6th, 2016 at 11:29:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Attention Nick Hanauer!

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 6th, 2016 at 11:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Buying a major mainstream media outlet is a task for billionaires. This would be something great for Nick Hanauer to do. He might even figure out how to make money while strengthening the news coverage and moving the Overton Window. Yves' friends might better be able to have significant influence on state and local politics in New York and surrounding states, especially in smaller market areas with candidate recruitment and support.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 5th, 2016 at 01:20:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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