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Open Thread 13 - 19 June

by Bjinse Mon Jun 13th, 2016 at 05:13:28 PM EST

Go ahead, make my thread


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On April 12* HuffPollster Poll of Polls had:

Remain -- 43.2%
Leave -- 40.7%
Undecided -- 16.1%

Today's numbers:

Remain -- 43.5%   up .3%
Leave --  48.8%   up 5.1%
Undecided -- 10.6% down 5.5%

What this is telling me is the Undecided are breaking strongly for Leave.  Unless this changes Leave will have a strong win, something like 55/45 (+/- 2%).  

*  no particular reason for this date

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jun 15th, 2016 at 04:36:44 PM EST
we're doomed

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jun 15th, 2016 at 04:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say "don't panic" but if these kind of numbers were Trump/Hillary they'd be prying me off the ceiling.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jun 15th, 2016 at 04:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh I've been kinda expecting it. I was genuinely surprised that Remain seemed to have a lead all the way until a fortnight ago. The tabloids have spent 30 years poisoning the commons against the EU.

The absolute absence of a sane and reasoned debate back in Jan/Feb/Mar prevented people allowing rationality to get through the fog. So people made up their minds based on prejudice and emotion, remain was always paddling uphill at that point.

In the last two weeks I've seen some great and reasoned stuff from blogs via FB, but it's all too late. Even now tho', there's nothing in the papers. Just blame and fear.

The strangest thing has been that, as brexit becomes likely, the media have started paying attention to the Labour party having completely ignored all the work it was doing up till now. It seems as if Corbyn is going to be blamed for not delivering the Labour vote because of his indifference and thus bringing about economic catastrophe.

And people are going to believe it as well

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jun 15th, 2016 at 05:08:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My entirely unscientific take is that the start was dominated by the leave campaign so people saw Farage everywhere and were disgusted. With the deadline approaching remain got into gear and you ended up seeing more Tories and very serious TV twits morally exhorting you to not be an idiot. So now the disgust balance goes the other way.

Nur der Euro bleibt stehen - von Berlin bis Athen - Georg Kreisler
by generic on Wed Jun 15th, 2016 at 05:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, there's some of that too

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 02:37:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yesterday on my FB feed there was an ad for Brexit featuring nothing but a taped speech of Corbyn''s from way back (2004?) decrying the EU roundly.
As I remembered his recent endorsement of Remain I did a double-take, wtf?
People say Brits engineered the too-rapid expansion of the EU eastward, as well as imported all the neolib brain rot that has taken root in the finance sector as they all fell over themselves trying to cover their Fall from the poison apple of derivatives and the bath they all took but are ashamed to own up to, (while continuing to up their padded salaries and wishing us bon appetit for the austerity gruel we're starving on).
Perfidious Albion... sat on the EU fence too long claiming most-recent-Empah privileges.
Good riddance, murmurs Europe, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Now we can get back to wrecking our own turf without you and your funny money games.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jun 17th, 2016 at 05:18:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Today's Poll-of-Poll figures:

Leave: 47.2%
Remain: 42.8%

Undecided: 9.9%

Big change is from an Ipsos MORI poll having Leave at 53% and no Undecided.  Need some confirmation as a Survation/IG Group poll has Leave at 41% and Remain at 39% with 12% Undecided.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 05:12:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't our last experimental result show that polls in the UK currently aren't worth murdering trees over?

Nur der Euro bleibt stehen - von Berlin bis Athen - Georg Kreisler
by generic on Fri Jun 17th, 2016 at 04:47:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean the last UK general election?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Jun 17th, 2016 at 09:14:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

Nur der Euro bleibt stehen - von Berlin bis Athen - Georg Kreisler
by generic on Fri Jun 17th, 2016 at 09:16:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My recollection is we decided the result was at the upper boundary of the polling but within the MOE.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 18th, 2016 at 10:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ooooh, this is a tasty rant

dKos - DemfromCT - Rick Wilson on the debasement of the Republican Party with Donald Trump

via twitter - edited to remove all the repeats;-
1/ How the actual fuck does anyone at the RNC have standing to act shocked that Trump is not doing the basics of campaigning?

2/ You can't elide over his utter dipshittery. No matter how much you try to act surprised, you own this. You're covered in his stench.

3/ History will be so cruel to you.
....

it goes on....and on Read. Enjoy

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 10:28:09 AM EST
The Guardian view on Jo Cox: an attack on humanity, idealism and democracy

The slide from civilisation to barbarism is shorter than we might like to imagine. Every violent crime taints the ideal of an orderly society, but when that crime is committed against the people who are peacefully selected to write the rules, then the affront is that much more profound.

The killing, by stabbing and repeated shooting in the street, of Jo Cox is, in the first instance, an exceptionally heinous villainy. She was the mother of two very young children, who will now have to grow up without her. It is also, however, in a very real sense, an attack on democracy. Violence against MPs in Britain is mercifully rare. Only three have been killed in recent history: Airey Neave, Tony Berry and Ian Gow, all of them at the hands of the Irish republicans. Two others, Nigel Jones and Stephen Timms, have been grievously wounded, the latter by a woman citing jihadi inspiration and rage about the Iraq war. Whatever the cause, an attack on a parliamentarian is always an attack on parliament as well, which was as clear in Thursday's case as any before.

....

The police are investigating reports that the assailant yelled "Britain First" during the attack. If those words were used, this would appear to be not merely a chauvinist taunt, but the name of a far-right political party, whose candidate for City Hall turned his back in disgust on Sadiq Khan at the count, in sectarian rage at a great cosmopolitan city's decision to make a Muslim mayor. The thuggish outfit denounced Ms Cox's death, as it was bound to do. But their brand of angry blame-mongering could very well serve to convince particular individuals - especially those who are already close to the edge - that some people are less than human, and thus fair game for attack. The rhetoric of western racism and Islamophobia is the mirror of the ideology with which Isis and al-Qaida secure their recruits and that persuades them to strap explosives to themselves, and die in order to kill. It might be especially powerful in Britain, at a time when divisive hate-mongering is seeping into the mainstream.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere." (But it helps!)
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 05:51:38 PM EST
If I had to come up with something positive out of Cox's murder, I'd have to say I hope the Stay people have the stones to hang this on the Brexit people.  Because in all honesty, the Brexit camp is of two types: the murderer and Boris.
by rifek on Thu Jun 16th, 2016 at 07:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to a new study by computer scientists at Columbia University and the French National Institute, 59 percent of links shared on social media have never actually been clicked: In other words, most people appear to retweet news without ever reading it.
link
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Jun 17th, 2016 at 08:58:41 AM EST


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Jun 19th, 2016 at 05:31:30 AM EST
Follow-up: this was posted in the Newsroom, about a week ago:
04 - 12 June 2016
Muslim bartender assaulted for serving alcohol during Ramadan
A female Muslim bartender was beaten up by two men after she served alcohol during the holy month of Ramadan. The incident took place in French city of Nice where a waitress was assaulted by two Muslim men for selling alcohol. The victim, who is from Tunisia, was abused and severely thrashed by the men.

The attacker, Ali E., 32, from Tunisia and undocumented for 5 years, was tried last week.

The surveillance video showed that the victim, a barmaid, also from Tunisia was "violently slapped in the face" once by  Ali E., and that Ali E. was the only assailant.

Ali E. was sentenced to a 8 months prison term, a €1000 compensation for the victim and a three-year ban from the French territory (should that be the whole Schengen area?).

Even though local right wing politicians and Le Figaro cried Sharia rule by Islamist extremists, the bar owner declared that Ali E. did not himself observe the Ramadan fasting and was "drinking beer and smoking joints".

by Bernard on Sun Jun 19th, 2016 at 01:18:20 PM EST
by Bernard on Sun Jun 19th, 2016 at 03:50:10 PM EST


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